The Australian political landscape is shifting, and the Coalition faces a critical decision: where should they focus their efforts to regain power? Should they chase after voters who have drifted towards One Nation, or those who have embraced the 'teal' independents? This is the core question at the heart of the current political strategy.
A significant fault line within the Coalition has been exposed, with prominent figures like Andrew Hastie and Barnaby Joyce at odds with moderates over key issues such as net-zero emissions and immigration. This division became even more pronounced when David Littleproud announced the National party's abandonment of its commitment to reach net zero by 2050.
So, which path offers the Coalition a better chance of success? Let's dive into the data.
Targeting the Center: A More Promising Strategy
The 2025 election data suggests that focusing on the center, particularly on 'teal' voters, is the more strategic move.
Why? Because most One Nation voters tend to return to the Coalition. The numbers speak for themselves: in 2025, a staggering 68% of One Nation votes flowed back to the Coalition, while only 25% preferred Labor. This suggests that the Coalition doesn't need to be overly concerned about losing voters to One Nation, as many of them already align with the Coalition's values.
But here's where it gets controversial... One Nation could potentially grow its primary vote in more seats, directly challenging the major parties. This happened in 2025 in the seat of Hunter and Maranoa. However, the likelihood of One Nation winning these seats, or any others, is historically low. The party has never secured a lower house seat at a federal election, even at its peak popularity.
More Seats to Gain from the Teals
Let's consider two hypothetical scenarios. First, what if the Coalition managed to secure all the preferences from One Nation voters, even those who prefer Labor? Second, what if the Coalition gained all the preferences from teal voters? In seats where the Coalition competes with teals or One Nation in the final two, a 5% swing from One Nation or teal voters is added to the Coalition's favor.
In this scenario, the Coalition could pick up six seats by targeting teal voters, compared to four by targeting One Nation voters. Given that the teal seats were previously held by the Coalition, it's not a stretch to imagine they could be won back if the party addressed why voters in these areas turned away in the first place.
However, even gaining six seats wouldn't be enough for the Coalition to form a government, only bringing them to a total of 49.
What About Targeting Outer Suburbs?
Could the Coalition gain enough seats from Labor by ditching net zero and focusing on immigration and housing, particularly in areas with a higher One Nation vote?
This is unlikely for a few reasons. The Coalition attempted this strategy in the 2025 election, targeting outer-suburban Labor seats, and it failed miserably. Their policies were already to the right of Labor on immigration and climate, and they lost ground in many seats.
The other reason this strategy is a harder road to take is simple political calculus. The majority of marginal Labor and Independent-held seats are in areas where the One Nation vote is lower. In contrast, the areas where the One Nation vote is highest are either already held by the Coalition or by Labor with a significant margin.
One Nation Voters: Not a Monolithic Group
It's a mistake to view One Nation voters as a single, unified group. A significant portion votes for One Nation as a protest vote against the major parties and would prefer the Greens, a more left-wing party, over the Liberals or Labor.
For example, in the 2025 election, around 18% of One Nation voters in seats like Ryan preferred the Greens over the Liberals. In contests between Labor and the Greens, One Nation voters preferred the Greens by up to 45%.
In conclusion, the path to regaining power for the Coalition appears to lie in targeting the center and appealing to teal voters. While the One Nation vote is significant, the data suggests that it's less fruitful to chase these voters than to focus on the center.
What do you think? Do you agree that the Coalition should focus on teal voters? Or do you believe there's a different strategy that would be more effective? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
